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Last Updated: 28 June

Insights

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Kestrel Buy/Sell Signals

The table shows the components of each market signal by region and country, and the resulting signal indicating whether to buy, sell or hold in that market. The most favourable market signal is a strong buy and the least favourable market signal is a strong sell.

The buy/sell signals incorporate within a single signal the economic and policy signals, the market price signals and market valuation signals.

Economic Indicator Scores

The top table shows the GDP indicator, its underlying components, and the resulting outlook for each region or country. The strongest possible outlook is very positive and the weakest possible outlook is very negative.

The economic indicator scores shown are those for accelerations in total GDP, consumption, investment, trade and production changes for each region and country.

Inflation Indicator Scores

The bottom table shows the headline inflation indicator, its underlying components and the resulting outlook for each region or country. The strongest outlook is very positive and the weakest outlook is very negative.

The inflation indicator is made up of headline inflation, inflation change, goods inflation and service inflation for each region or country.

Market Price Patterns

The four tables show technical charts for equity, bond, currency and commodity markets, for 28 markets in each asset class.

Each table shows the market price patterns of each region or country, comparing its latest price or yield to its 50 day moving average, 200 day moving average, 12 day exponential moving average, 26 day exponential moving average, its Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and its Relative Strength Index (RSI).  The maximum combined signal is a strong buy and the minimum combined signal is a strong sell.

Market Valuations

The tables show the valuations of each market by region and country, and the resulting signal indicating whether to buy, sell or hold in that market.

The equity valuations are made up of price earnings, price to cash flow, dividend yield, and difference of earnings to the bond yield.

The bond valuations are made up of CPI over 6 months acceleration, exports over 6 months acceleration, short rate yields, exchange rates.

The currency valuations are made up of the change in CPI, initial production growth, bond yields and exports growth.

The commodity valuations are made up of the emerging markets exchange rate, the Asia ex Japan exchange rate, the world stock market, the resource market exchange rate, the sub commodity index, the all commodity index, and the precious metals index. The maximum combined signal is a strong buy and the minimum combined signal is a strong sell.